Trump’s Cease-Fire in Gaza Raises Questions on Lasting Peace

U.S. President Donald Trump announced a cease-fire in the ongoing conflict in Gaza, suggesting the emergence of a new regional order aimed at imposing peace and security to foster economic prosperity. Speaking at the Israeli Knesset on October 15, 2023, Trump proclaimed this moment as the “historic dawn of a new Middle East,” promising “eternal” peace and shared prosperity. Nonetheless, analysts and Palestinian representatives argue that the underlying issues of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remain largely unaddressed.

While Trump’s intervention in halting the two-year war in Gaza is commendable, many believe it overlooks critical Palestinian concerns regarding their historical rights and aspirations for statehood. Trump’s approach seems to treat Gaza’s reconstruction as a real estate development, avoiding the essential political negotiations necessary for a lasting resolution.

Kristian P. Alexander, a senior fellow at the Rabdan Security and Defense Institute in the UAE, criticized the peace approach outlined in Trump’s plan. He noted that it relies more on overwhelming force and diplomatic pressure rather than mutual agreement. This strategy aligns closely with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu‘s doctrine of “peace through strength.” Alexander emphasized that the focus on economic benefits and reconstruction could sidestep the political and territorial conflicts that have long plagued the region.

Trump’s 20-point plan does leave the possibility for a Palestinian state open, suggesting a “credible pathway” to self-determination. However, Netanyahu has already dismissed such a state, raising concerns about the viability of any peace initiative that does not ensure genuine Palestinian sovereignty. Alexander pointed out that without control over borders, airspace, and resources, the Palestinian economy will remain dependent on Israeli oversight.

Palestinians view the conflict through the lens of decades-long military occupation and the struggle for their basic rights. Dalal Iriqat, an associate professor of diplomacy at the Arab American University Palestine, noted that Trump’s focus on his economic vision does not equate to a viable peace solution. “There can be no peace and stability without justice,” she stated in a phone interview from Ramallah. Iriqat stressed that until the Palestinian people regain their political rights, the conflict is unlikely to end.

Moreover, she argued for accountability for Israel’s actions against Palestinians, particularly during what she termed “genocide” in Gaza, where over 67,000 people have reportedly died in recent conflicts. Iriqat also pointed out that growing international support for Palestinian statehood—led by nations like Saudi Arabia and France—could influence Trump’s approach to peace.

The current geopolitical landscape shows Israel increasingly isolated, with shifting Western public opinion in response to its actions in Gaza. Iriqat urged that this moment should lead to concrete actions, including sanctions and a halt to arms exports to Israel, to compel compliance with international law.

The prospect of an economic peace anchored in the status quo—where occupation and annexation continue unabated—poses risks of renewed violence, according to Alexander. He warned that consolidating such a framework would not only foster resentment among Palestinians but also lead to a resurgence of conflict.

In the West Bank, home to 2.7 million Palestinians, the day-to-day reality remains bleak. As Shuruq As’ad, a journalist and mother of two, described, daily life involves navigating a landscape marked by Israeli settlements and military presence. “I need to think a hundred times before going anywhere,” she said, highlighting the pervasive fear and uncertainty that characterize life under occupation.

As’ad expressed hope for the future, emphasizing the importance of ending violence in Gaza and allowing Palestinians to rebuild and recover. As a descendant of those displaced during the Nakba, she longs for a life free from fear and oppression. “I have the right to live in Palestine with dignity and to enjoy civil rights like any Israeli,” she asserted.

The dynamics of peace in the Middle East remain intricate and challenging. With Iran opting out of the recent “Peace Summit” in Sharm el-Sheikh, the implications of Trump’s plan extend beyond Israel and Palestine, affecting regional stability. Alexander noted that the U.S. and Israel’s strategy could aim not merely at managing Iran but possibly at inducing a shift in its regime.

Ultimately, the long-term viability of Trump’s peace plan hinges on addressing the political and territorial dimensions of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Absent a credible commitment to Palestinian sovereignty, the cycle of violence and instability is likely to continue.