Mamdani Leads NYC Mayor’s Race, Tightens if Sliwa Exits

The race for mayor of New York City is intensifying, with a recent poll indicating that Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani maintains a strong lead ahead of the upcoming election. According to a survey conducted by AARP and Gotham Polling released on October 20, 2025, Mamdani is favored by 43.2% of likely voters. Independent candidate Andrew Cuomo follows at 28.9%, while Republican Curtis Sliwa trails at 19.4%.

As the election approaches, early voting begins in just five days, followed by Election Day on November 7, 2025. The upcoming debate on Wednesday is poised to further shape public opinion and voter engagement.

Poll Insights and Potential Shake-Ups

The AARP and Gotham Polling data reveals a tighter race in the hypothetical scenario where Sliwa withdraws from the contest. In that case, Mamdani’s lead over Cuomo narrows significantly, with Mamdani at 44.6% and Cuomo at 40.7%, a margin that falls within the poll’s statistical error range. This suggests that Sliwa’s presence in the race could be pivotal in determining the final outcome.

Sliwa, however, has firmly stated his intention to remain a candidate, asserting, “I’m not dropping out.” He emphasized the importance of allowing voters to make their choices without pressure on other candidates to withdraw. His comments come in response to Cuomo, who suggested last week that Sliwa’s candidacy complicates his chances against Mamdani.

Cuomo’s tone shifted during a recent appearance on Fox News, where he referred to Sliwa as “irrelevant” but acknowledged that Sliwa does attract a segment of votes that could impact the dynamics of the election. “He does take a certain number of votes, and to that extent, he is a spoiler,” Cuomo stated.

Candidate Responses and Campaign Strategies

Mamdani has welcomed Sliwa’s participation, framing it as a positive contribution to the democratic process. “It’s genuinely positive for our democracy that there’s another candidate in this race who believes New York City voters should pick their next mayor, not billionaires who mostly live somewhere else,” he remarked.

The candidates are gearing up for their next debate, where they will likely address key issues that resonate with voters. Mamdani has criticized Cuomo’s focus on his competitors rather than on engaging with New York residents, claiming, “We are spending this time speaking directly to New Yorkers.”

With the election looming, the race for New York City mayor remains competitive, and the next debate could play a crucial role in solidifying voter preferences as candidates work to articulate their visions for the city’s future.