Seasonal Retail Hiring Hits 15-Year Low Amid Record Sales Surge

URGENT UPDATE: Seasonal retail hiring is projected to plunge to its lowest level in 15 years, as retailers brace for the holiday shopping season with significantly fewer workers. From November 1 to December 31, retailers are expected to hire between 265,000 and 365,000 seasonal workers, down from 442,000 last year, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF).

This dramatic decrease in hiring comes even as holiday sales are on track to exceed $1 trillion for the first time ever, with spending expected to rise between 3.7% and 4.2%. The NRF’s latest forecast reflects heightened consumer demand, but raises questions about workforce readiness during the critical shopping period.

The retail sector is grappling with a strained labor market, leading to cautious hiring strategies. Layoffs have surged this year, with job cuts reaching their highest levels since 2020. NRF Chief Economist Mark Mathews noted that the hiring forecast signals a “softening and slowing labor market.” He added, “Nevertheless, we are confident that retailers will be prepared to meet consumers with the prices, with the goods, and the convenient savings and value they’re looking for this holiday season.”

Consumer sentiment is showing signs of concern due to rising prices, as inflation ticks upward from tariffs on imported goods. According to a recent analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, companies have passed approximately one-third of new import duties onto consumers between May and July. NRF Senior Economist Jack Kleinhenz emphasized that despite these worries, consumers are still eager to spend, prioritizing holiday celebrations over other purchases.

Mathews offered reassurance, stating, “People save for it, they plan for it, they prioritize it and we think that’s going to happen again this year.” Retailers are taking a proactive approach in response to these challenges. For instance, Target is asking existing employees if they want to take on additional shifts before seeking new seasonal hires, a tactic aimed at mitigating the impact of fewer new recruits.

While the trend indicates less hiring, it’s notable that fewer layoffs have been reported in the retail industry. “You might see less hiring, but we are seeing less firing in the retail industry,” Mathews explained. This balance may help retailers maintain adequate staffing levels during the busy holiday season.

As the holiday shopping season approaches, the NRF urges consumers and retailers alike to prepare for a unique shopping experience marked by both rising prices and resilient consumer demand. With record sales expected, the focus remains on how effectively retailers can adapt to these new conditions with a reduced workforce.

Stay tuned for further updates as this story develops. The intersection of hiring trends and holiday spending will be crucial to watch in the coming weeks.