New Hampshire Republicans Navigate Trump Influence in 2024

New Hampshire Republicans are grappling with the increasing influence of the Trump Era as the state approaches the 2024 election. Known for its unique blend of moderate and conservative views, New Hampshire presents a complex landscape for political candidates. The state, with its three electoral votes and approximately 1.4 million inhabitants, has consistently demonstrated its importance in national politics. Despite being the most Republican state in liberal New England, New Hampshire’s federal delegation remains entirely Democratic, highlighting the ongoing tension between state and national party dynamics.

The rise of the MAGA movement within the state has fundamentally altered the Republican Party’s landscape. According to Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, many moderate Republicans are choosing to remain silent in the current political climate. Smith noted, “We’re in a little bit of a Trumpian moment that has divided the state.” This division has led to challenges for candidates who do not align strictly with Trump’s agenda.

In the 2024 elections, MAGA-aligned candidates sought to make significant gains in New Hampshire. While they faced setbacks at the federal level, local elections reflected a shift towards conservative candidates willing to adopt a quieter approach. Smith described this phenomenon as a “real shift” in party politics, indicating a departure from the moderation that once characterized the state’s Republican Party.

One prominent figure navigating this landscape is Republican Governor Kelly Ayotte. She has had to balance her political strategies while addressing parts of Trump’s national agenda. In October 2023, Ayotte declined to support redistricting efforts aimed at benefiting Republicans, citing the ongoing census process. Instead, she focused on securing vital funding for educational programs, successfully advocating for the reversal of a decision to withhold $5.5 billion designated for essential resources in the state.

As Ayotte strives to maintain her position, she is also championing her Commission on Government Efficiency (COGE), a remnant of the Trump administration’s initiatives. Although she expressed disagreement with the administration’s decision to retract $80 million in federal public health funding, she acknowledged the challenges that such decisions present.

Political analysts are observing Ayotte’s approach closely. Dante Scala, a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire, describes her strategy as a “New Hampshire-first approach.” He highlights her efforts to minimize direct involvement with Trump while still finding common ground when necessary. Scala noted that New Hampshire voters tend to be socially liberal yet fiscally conservative, resulting in a significant population of Independent voters.

While Ayotte maintains a level of support, she faces potential challengers from within her party. Rumors of a bid by Corey Lewandowski, a Trump ally and former chief of staff, have circulated, although analysts express skepticism about his appeal among New Hampshire voters. Kathleen Sullivan, a former chair of the New Hampshire Democratic Party, indicated confidence in Ayotte’s ability to fend off such challenges, stating, “She’d kick his ass.”

Looking ahead, the political landscape could shift further as Senator Jeanne Shaheen is set to retire in 2026, opening a seat for potential Republican candidates. The race is likely to see a contest between moderate former Senator John E. Sununu and right-wing candidate Scott Brown. Sununu’s previous criticism of Trump, including an op-ed titled “Donald Trump is a loser,” positions him as a moderate alternative, while Brown’s past affiliations with the former president could energize the MAGA base.

As New Hampshire Republicans navigate these complexities, they must contend with the reality that around 70% of party members continue to support Trump. Smith emphasized that the party is currently engaged in a delicate balancing act, stating, “They’re doing the Trump dance — they don’t want to be too close, but they don’t want to get too far away.”

The ongoing struggle for the Republican Party in New Hampshire underscores a broader national trend as candidates seek to reconcile traditional Republican values with the evolving demands of the party base. As Thomas Rath, former attorney general of New Hampshire, pointed out, the challenge lies in maintaining a moderate stance while accommodating the influence of Trumpism. “There’s been some success in not getting us overrun,” Rath observed, but the sustainability of this balance remains uncertain as the political climate continues to evolve.